Gain exposure to Anthropic and OpenAI before the IPO

Key takeaways

1. As of July 21, onchain markets value Anthropic at $1.46 trillion and OpenAI at $1.09 trillion.
2. Prediction markets imply Anthropic announces its IPO by December 1 and lists by December 31; OpenAI announces by April 2027 and lists by end of 2027.
3. OpenAI traded at an implied $706 billion one week before reports of an $830 billion raise.
4. After the May 13 rejection of unauthorized share transfers, spot volume fell from a $20 million peak day to under $100,000 a day.
5. SpaceX's onchain market averaged $77,000 a day for seven months, then hit $1.4 billion on IPO day.

OpenAI and Anthropic are the two biggest IPOs on the horizon, and neither trades publicly. This report maps the onchain markets that already price them. Spot tokens on Solana claim shares through an SPV. Perpetual futures on Lighter quote each company's valuation without claiming the shares. Polymarket and Kalshi price the expected timing and valuation of the IPOs. The report explains what exposure each contract provides.

The report then follows trading after May 13, when both companies rejected unauthorized share transfers. Spot tokens depended on recognition of those transfers. Perpetuals and prediction markets did not. The data shows how spot-token prices and volume responded, which products gained activity, and where trading settled.

It next tests whether thin onchain markets can provide useful valuation signals. The OpenAI and Anthropic perpetual markets are compared with the terms of their next funding rounds. Those prices formed on volumes near $100,000 a day but anticipated terms that became public later.

The final sections price the IPOs themselves. Polymarket's listing markets and Kalshi's confirmation markets provide a market-implied calendar for both companies. SpaceX provides the historical comparison. Its pre-IPO market moved from $77,000 a day to $1.4 billion when the listing became official. Figures come from Allium onchain data using a mid-July snapshot. Kalshi ladder prices are bid-ask midpoints from Kalshi's public market data.