Is Polymarket Legal in the US? The State of Play
Polymarket is barred from serving US customers under a 2022 CFTC settlement, but the legal ground is shifting fast. Here is what that means for users, regulators, and anyone reading the headlines.
Polymarket is not authorized to serve customers in the United States. In January 2022 it settled charges with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that regulates derivatives, paid a penalty, and agreed to block US users from trading on its platform. Reaching it from inside the US means going around that block, which sits in a legal gray zone rather than a clearly permitted one. That picture is shifting, and this piece explains where the lines are drawn today and why they are moving. Polymarket is a prediction market, a platform where people buy and sell shares that pay out based on whether a real-world event happens.
Key takeaways
- Polymarket is barred from offering its markets to US persons under a January 2022 CFTC settlement. The company paid a penalty and agreed to geoblock American users.
- The rival platform Kalshi is CFTC-registered as a US exchange, which is why nearly identical event contracts can be legal on one venue and off-limits on another.
- A 2024 court ruling in Kalshi's favor and a more crypto-friendly federal posture since early 2025 have reopened whether event contracts can be legally offered to Americans, and on what terms.
- A US person trading through the geoblock has no US consumer protections and no clear recourse if funds are lost. That gap, not personal prosecution, is the practical cost of the ban.
- Because Polymarket runs on a public blockchain, activity that flows through the geoblock is still visible in the transaction record, which is how researchers track US participation.
How the legal restriction actually works
The word "illegal" is doing a lot of work in casual coverage, so the mechanics are worth walking through step by step.
- The classification. The CFTC treats Polymarket's event contracts as swaps or derivatives, financial products whose value depends on an outside event. Offering those to US retail customers requires registration as a designated contract market or a similar license.
- The 2022 settlement. Polymarket had not registered. The CFTC charged it with operating an unregistered facility. Polymarket settled, paid a penalty, and agreed to wind down non-compliant markets and to keep US persons off the platform.
- The geoblock. To comply, Polymarket restricts access from US internet addresses and asks users to confirm they are not US persons. This is the digital equivalent of a venue checking IDs at the door.
- The workaround. Because Polymarket runs on a public blockchain, a shared digital ledger that anyone can transact on without a central gatekeeper, a determined user can reach it with tools that mask location. Doing so violates the platform's terms and sits against the spirit of the settlement, which is why it is a gray area rather than an approved path.
The consequence for a US user is not usually a knock on the door. It is trading on a venue with no US consumer protections, no recourse if something goes wrong, and no guarantee funds can be recovered.
Why the same bet is legal on Kalshi
The cleanest way to understand Polymarket's status is to compare it with Kalshi, a US company that took the opposite route. Kalshi registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market, the license Polymarket lacked, and offers event contracts to Americans under federal oversight. Both platforms let people trade very similar questions. The difference is paperwork and jurisdiction, not concept.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| US regulatory status | Barred from US users under 2022 CFTC settlement | CFTC-registered designated contract market |
| Where trades settle | On a public blockchain, in a stablecoin (a token pegged to the US dollar) | On a licensed US exchange, in dollars |
| US consumer protections | None for US users bypassing the block | Yes, under CFTC oversight |
| Access for a US person | Not permitted | Permitted |
The comparison also shows why the legal ground is shifting. Kalshi went to court to defend its right to list political event contracts, and in 2024 a federal judge ruled in its favor against a CFTC attempt to block them. That decision, combined with a federal government that has grown more open to crypto since early 2025, has weakened the assumption that event contracts are inherently off-limits. If Kalshi can list election markets legally, the question of what a compliant Polymarket-style venue could look like in the US becomes live rather than settled.
How US participation is still visible
A geoblock might be assumed to work. Because trades happen on a public blockchain, it is possible to observe that US-linked wallets, the accounts that hold and move funds onchain, are participating anyway. Allium's own research found that US users led substantial political betting on Polymarket despite the ban, detailed in its analysis of US-led political betting on Polymarket. For a newsroom, this turns "the prediction market says 60 percent" from a neutral fact into a sourcing question about who is setting that price and whether US flow that should not be there is shaping it.
A separate integrity question is whether the prices themselves can be trusted. Because a prediction market settles a contract on a defined outcome, a trader with enough capital can sometimes push the price near settlement to influence the payout or the perceived odds. Bloomberg cited Allium data examining exactly this pattern, covered in its reporting on possible Polymarket settlement manipulation. Allium provides normalized, labeled onchain data that institutions, researchers, and newsrooms use to read these markets. It is not an exchange, a broker, or a betting platform, and it does not offer investment or legal advice.
Risks and open questions
The honest answer to "is Polymarket legal in the US" is that the restriction is clear but the future is not. Several things remain unresolved.
- Will Polymarket seek a US return? Reports through 2025 suggested the company was exploring regulated re-entry, potentially by acquiring a licensed US venue. Whether and how that happens will change the answer for American users.
- How will the CFTC treat event contracts going forward? The Kalshi ruling weakened the agency's blanket resistance to political contracts, but the boundaries of what is permissible, especially for sensitive categories, are still being litigated and defined.
- Does using a geoblock workaround expose a US user to liability? Enforcement to date has focused on operators, not individual retail users, but that is a description of past practice, not a guarantee, and it is not legal advice.
- Can settlement integrity be enforced? If prices can be manipulated near settlement, the question of who polices that, and how, remains open, particularly for an offshore venue.
None of this is investment or legal guidance. It is a description of the state of play as of late 2025, and the state of play is moving. The one durable fact is that these markets run on public infrastructure, which means the activity behind the headlines can be read, checked, and understood by anyone who looks at the underlying data.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket legal to use in the United States?
No. Under a January 2022 settlement with the CFTC, Polymarket agreed to pay a penalty and to block US persons from trading on its platform. Accessing it from the US through tools that bypass that block violates the platform's terms and sits in a legal gray area rather than a permitted one.
Why is Kalshi legal in the US but Polymarket is not?
Kalshi registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market, the license required to offer event contracts to Americans under federal oversight. Polymarket operated without that registration, which is what the 2022 CFTC charges addressed. The two offer similar markets, but only one is licensed to serve US customers.
Can Americans still access Polymarket despite the ban?
Some do, using tools that mask their location, because Polymarket runs on a public blockchain with no central gatekeeper. This violates the platform's terms. Because trades are recorded on a public ledger, researchers have observed that US-linked accounts continue to participate despite the restriction.
What happens to a US user if something goes wrong on Polymarket?
A US person trading through the geoblock has no US consumer protections, no regulated exchange standing behind the trade, and no clear recourse to recover funds. That absence of a safety net, rather than personal prosecution, is the practical cost of the ban.
Could Polymarket become legal in the US again?
Possibly. Reports through 2025 indicated Polymarket was exploring a regulated US return, potentially by acquiring a licensed venue. A 2024 court ruling favoring Kalshi on political event contracts also softened the regulatory stance, but nothing is finalized.
Are Polymarket's prediction market odds reliable?
They reflect real money at stake, which can make them informative, but they are not immune to manipulation. Because a contract settles on a defined outcome, a large trader can sometimes push the price near settlement. Bloomberg has cited Allium data examining this pattern on Polymarket.
